Node harvest

When choosing a suitable technique for regression and classification with multivariate predictor variables, one is often faced with a tradeoff between interpretability and high predictive accuracy. To give a classical example, classification and regression trees are easy to understand and interpret. Tree ensembles like Random Forests provide usually more accurate predictions. Yet tree ensembles are also more difficult to analyze than single trees and are often criticized, perhaps unfairly, as `black box' predictors. Node harvest is trying to reconcile the two aims of interpretability and predictive accuracy by combining positive aspects of trees and tree ensembles. Results are very sparse and interpretable and predictive accuracy is extremely competitive, especially for low signal-to-noise data. The procedure is simple: an initial set of a few thousand nodes is generated randomly. If a new observation falls into just a single node, its prediction is the mean response of all training observation within this node, identical to a tree-like prediction. A new observation falls typically into several nodes and its prediction is then the weighted average of the mean responses across all these nodes. The only role of node harvest is to `pick' the right nodes from the initial large ensemble of nodes by choosing node weights, which amounts in the proposed algorithm to a quadratic programming problem with linear inequality constraints. The solution is sparse in the sense that only very few nodes are selected with a nonzero weight. This sparsity is not explicitly enforced. Maybe surprisingly, it is not necessary to select a tuning parameter for optimal predictive accuracy. Node harvest can handle mixed data and missing values and is shown to be simple to interpret and competitive in predictive accuracy on a variety of data sets.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS367 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Forest Garrote

Variable selection for high-dimensional linear models has received a lot of attention lately, mostly in the context of l1-regularization. Part of the attraction is the variable selection effect: parsimonious models are obtained, which are very suitable for interpretation. In terms of predictive power, however, these regularized linear models are often slightly inferior to machine learning procedures like tree ensembles. Tree ensembles, on the other hand, lack usually a formal way of variable selection and are difficult to visualize. A Garrote-style convex penalty for trees ensembles, in particular Random Forests, is proposed. The penalty selects functional groups of nodes in the trees. These could be as simple as monotone functions of individual predictor variables. This yields a parsimonious function fit, which lends itself easily to visualization and interpretation. The predictive power is maintained at least at the same level as the original tree ensemble. A key feature of the method is that, once a tree ensemble is fitted, no further tuning parameter needs to be selected. The empirical performance is demonstrated on a wide array of datasets.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

High-dimensional graphs and variable selection with the Lasso

The pattern of zero entries in the inverse covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution corresponds to conditional independence restrictions between variables. Covariance selection aims at estimating those structural zeros from data. We show that neighborhood selection with the Lasso is a computationally attractive alternative to standard covariance selection for sparse high-dimensional graphs. Neighborhood selection estimates the conditional independence restrictions separately for each node in the graph and is hence equivalent to variable selection for Gaussian linear models. We show that the proposed neighborhood selection scheme is consistent for sparse high-dimensional graphs. Consistency hinges on the choice of the penalty parameter. The oracle value for optimal prediction does not lead to a consistent neighborhood estimate. Controlling instead the probability of falsely joining some distinct connectivity components of the graph, consistent estimation for sparse graphs is achieved (with exponential rates), even when the number of variables grows as the number of observations raised to an arbitrary power.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000281 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

LASSO ISOtone for High Dimensional Additive Isotonic Regression

Additive isotonic regression attempts to determine the relationship between a multi-dimensional observation variable and a response, under the constraint that the estimate is the additive sum of univariate component effects that are monotonically increasing. In this article, we present a new method for such regression called LASSO Isotone (LISO). LISO adapts ideas from sparse linear modelling to additive isotonic regression. Thus, it is viable in many situations with high dimensional predictor variables, where selection of significant versus insignificant variables are required. We suggest an algorithm involving a modification of the backfitting algorithm CPAV. We give a numerical convergence result, and finally examine some of its properties through simulations. We also suggest some possible extensions that improve performance, and allow calculation to be carried out when the direction of the monotonicity is unknown

Discussion: Latent variable graphical model selection via convex optimization

Discussion of "Latent variable graphical model selection via convex optimization" by Venkat Chandrasekaran, Pablo A. Parrilo and Alan S. Willsky [arXiv:1008.1290].Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/12-AOS980 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Discussion of: Treelets--An adaptive multi-scale basis for sparse unordered data

This is a discussion of paper "Treelets--An adaptive multi-scale basis for sparse unordered data" [arXiv:0707.0481] by Ann B. Lee, Boaz Nadler and Larry Wasserman. In this paper the authors defined a new type of dimension reduction algorithm, namely, the treelet algorithm. The treelet method has the merit of being completely data driven, and its decomposition is easier to interpret as compared to PCR. It is suitable in some certain situations, but it also has its own limitations. I will discuss both the strength and the weakness of this method when applied to microarray data analysis.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS137E the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org